Analysis of the survival of cirrhotic patients enlisted for liver transplantation in the pre- and post-MELD era in southern Brazil.

CONTEXT: Transplantation is the only cure for decompensated cirrhosis. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used in liver allocation. OBJECTIVES: Comparing survival of enlisted populations in pre- and post-MELD eras and estimating their long-term survival. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of cirrhotics enlisted for transplantation during pre- and post-MELD eras. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier's model. Cox's model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. Exponential, Weibull's, normal-log and Gompertz's models were used to estimate long-term survival. RESULTS: The study included 162 patients enlisted in pre-MELD era and 184 in post-MELD period. Kaplan-Meier's survival curve of patients enlisted in post-MELD era was better than that of pre-MELD period (P = 0.009). This difference remained for long-term estimates, with a survival of 53.54% in 5 years and 44.64% in 10 years for patients enlisted in post-MELD era and of 43.17% and 41.75% for pre-MELD period. Era in which patients had been enlisted (P = 0.010) and MELD score at enlistment (P<0.001) were independently associated to survival with hazard ratios of 0.664 (95% CI-confidence interval = 0.487-0.906) and 1.069 (95% CI = 1.043-1.095). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-based transplantation policy is superior to chronology-based one, promoting better survival for enlisted patients, even in long-term.

Analysis of thessurvival of cirrhotic patients nlisted for liver transplantatiion in the pre- and post-meld era in southern Brazil / Análise da sobrevida de pacientes cirróticos listados para transplante ortotópico de fígado nas eras pré e pós MELD no Sul do Brasil

Context Transplantation is the only cure for decompensated cirrhosis. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used in liver allocation. Objectives Comparing survival of enlisted populations in pre- and post-MELD eras and estimating their long-term survival. Methods This is a retrospective study of cirrhotics enlisted for transplantation during pre- and post-MELD eras. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier’s model. Cox’s model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. Exponential, Weibull’s, normal-log and Gompertz’s models were used to estimate long-term survival. Results The study included 162 patients enlisted in pre-MELD era and 184 in post-MELD period. Kaplan-Meier’s survival curve of patients enlisted in post-MELD era was better than that of pre-MELD period (P = 0.009). This difference remained for long-term estimates, with a survival of 53.54% in 5 years and 44.64% in 10 years for patients enlisted in post-MELD era and of 43.17% and 41.75% for pre-MELD period. Era in which patients had been enlisted (P = 0.010) and MELD score at enlistment (P<0.001) were independently associated to survival with hazard ratios of 0.664 (95% CI-confidence interval = 0.487-0.906) and 1.069 (95% CI = 1.043-1.095). Conclusions MELD-based transplantation policy is superior to chronology-based one, promoting better survival for enlisted patients, even in long-term. .

Contexto O transplante é a única cura para a cirrose descompensada. O Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) é usado na alocação de órgãos. Objetivos Comparar a sobrevida da população listada para transplante nas eras pré e pós-MELD e estimar sua sobrevida a longo prazo. Métodos Este é um estudo retrospectivo, de cirróticos listados para transplante nas eras pré e pós-MELD. Curvas de sobrevida foram criadas através do modelo de Kaplan-Meier. O modelo de Cox foi utilizada para determinar fatores de risco para mortalidade. Os modelos exponencial, Weibull, log-normal e Gompertz foram usados para estimar sobrevida de longo prazo. Resultados Incluíram-se 162 pacientes listados na era pré-MELD e 184 listados na pós-MELD. A curva de Kaplan-Meier para os pacientes listados na era pós-MELD foi melhor que a da pré-MELD (P = 0,009). Esta diferença permaneceu nas estimativas de longo prazo, com sobrevida de 53,54% em 5 anos e de 44,64% em 10 anos para pacientes listados na era pós-MELD e de 43,17% e 41,75% no período pré-MELD. A era em que os pacientes eram listados (P = 0,010) e o MELD de inscrição (P<0,001) estiveram associados de maneira independente à sobrevida, com razão de riscos de 0,664 (intervalo de confiança-IC 95% = 0,487-0,906) e de 1,069 (IC 95% = 1,043-1,095). Conclusões A política de transplantes baseada no escore MELD é superior à baseada no tempo de espera em lista, promovendo melhor sobrevida, mesmo em longo prazo. .